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Forecasting in Talkdesk Workforce Management includes three core statistics:

• Contact volume offered (CVO) is predicted for each 15-minute interval.
• Average handle time (AHT) is predicted for each 15-minute interval.
• Required staffing is calculated for each interval based on the predicted CVO and AHT.

CVO and AHT predictions use similar methods, so they will be described together below, although the process is performed independently for each statistic.

Selection of an appropriate forecast model is performed for each queue independently. This is done automatically at the beginning of each new forecast week, based on the data available at that time, with the following steps:

• An initial screening of the queue’s data narrows the range of models to be tested. For example, queues with very low volume will be tested against different models than queues with high volume.
• The applicable models are tested by using them to forecast recent completed weeks.
• The model that produces the most accurate results for each queue is selected for that queue.

Once models are selected, forecasts can be generated:

• The model for each queue is trained using the historical data for that queue.
• Adjustments for designated holidays and identified outliers are handled as appropriate within each model.
• CVO and AHT predictions are created/updated for every interval using the trained model(s) for all the weeks in the forecast timeline.
• Where applicable, predicted values for intervals outside currently enforced business hours are removed.

Once CVO and AHT are forecast for all queues, required staffing is calculated for each interval. The calculations used vary depending on the service level (SL) threshold of each queue:

• Staffing for queues with shorter SL thresholds is calculated using a modified Erlang formula.
• Staffing for queues with longer SL thresholds is calculated as workload, then redistributed across the SL threshold window (within the queue’s open hours).
• Shrinkage is then applied to the requirements for each interval.

On a nightly basis during the week, the previously selected model for each queue is re-trained with the latest historical data, and all forecast values are refreshed using the current configurations for the queue.

Table of Contents

• Smoothing Average Handle Time (AHT)
• Fill-In of Missing AHT
• Carryover Rounding of Contact Volume Offered
• Processing Order
• Intraday Reforecasting
• Forecast Import Feature
  • Accessing the Import Feature
  • Preparing Your Import File
  • Importing Your File
  • Import Process and Results

Smoothing Average Handle Time (AHT)

The AHT data for an interval can be subject to random spikes for various reasons, such as:

• Individual contacts having an outsized impact due to low volume.
• Agent misuse of the routing system, for example, going into a post-contact wrap-up state when they should be in a state that represents a break or meeting event.

Additionally, AHT may be missing from the initial forecast for some intervals due to lack of historical data, especially in queues or times of day with very low volumes.

To reduce the impact of these fluctuations on the forecasts for individual intervals, WFM smooths the forecasts by replacing the initial forecast values for each interval with a weighted average that includes forecast values from other intervals. For all intervals with a non-zero AHT forecast, the initial forecast is replaced with a moving weighted average:

• For each interval, calculates a weighted average that includes the initially forecasted AHT for that interval and the four nearest intervals with AHT values.
• If there are not four intervals, the average is based on the available intervals.
• Weighting is based on the forecasted Contact Volume Offered (CVO) for each interval.
   

Fill-In of Missing AHT

For intervals where CVO>=0 and AHT=0, the 0 should be replaced with a weighted average of four non-zero intervals:

• These should be the five nearest non-zero intervals to the target interval.
• Weighting should be based on the forecasted Contact Volume Offered (CVO) for each interval.
• If the forecast data set does not contain two non-zero intervals before the target interval (for example, if the target interval is one of the first intervals in the forecast), then it calculates the weighted average using the available non-zero intervals on the left (0, 1 or 2) and the available non-zero interval on the right (0, 1 or 2).
   

Carryover Rounding of Contact Volume Offered

Similarly to AHT, forecasted Contact Volume Offered (CVO) can be subject to random spikes, especially noticeable on low volume queues. To correct these artifacts, WFM processes the initial forecast applying carry-over rounding. The carryover rounding works as follows:

• Calculate the daily total forecast (from the unrounded intervals) and round it to the nearest integer.
  For the first interval of the day, round the forecast down to the nearest integer.
• Carry over the amount that is rounded down and add it to the next interval before rounding it.
• For the last interval of the day, round up or down as needed to match the rounded daily total.
   

Processing Order

WFM performs the described tasks in the following order:

1. Handle closed hours.
2. Carry over rounding of CVO.
3. Fill in missing AHT.
4. Smooth AHT.

Intraday Reforecasting

Intraday Reforecasting helps optimize resource planning with forecast updates to proactively tackle unexpected contact volume changes. The forecasts adapt based on volume history taking into account your time zone, with regular intervals as frequent as every 30 minutes, enhancing intraday accuracy and mitigating the impacts of demand fluctuations.

The following diagram illustrates the reforecasting process:

Whenever WFM detects an anomaly, which can be an unexpected surge or drop in volume (when compared to the forecast), it will automatically trigger a reforecasting process, which will generate a new forecast for the affected queues.

The queues that are selected for intraday reforecast will have the forecast updated until the end of the current day, based on the account settings. The reforecasting process will also trigger an update to the metrics on the Team Schedule page.

Users with view permissions of the Forecast page, and with access to the affected queues (based on Ring Group Scoping configurations), will receive a notification upon reforecast triggering and also when it is completed. These notifications provide direct access to the Forecast page, filtered by the affected queues.

While a reforecast is in process, the Forecast, Team Schedule, and Insights pages will display an information message panel at the top. These panels also provide direct access to other relevant WFM pages, filtered by the affected queues.

Forecast Import Feature

The Forecast Import feature allows you to upload a CSV file containing forecast data directly into the system. This can be used to update existing forecasts in bulk or to add new forecast data that was produced outside of WFM.
 

Accessing the Import Feature

1. Navigate to the Forecast page.
2. Click the  Import button. 

Preparing Your Import File

Your import file must be a CSV (Comma Separated Values) file and adhere to a specific format.

Required Columns:

• Queue: The name of the queue for which you are importing data.
• Datetime: The specific date and time for the forecast entry.
• Interaction volume offered: The forecasted interaction volume.
• Average handle time: The forecasted average handle time.

Note: An option to download a template for import is available in the top right of the Import Forecast screen.

Example forecast_template.csv content:
Queue,Datetime,Interaction volume offered,Average handle time

agents,08/28/2025 11:15:00,2,280

agents,08/28/2025 11:30:00,4,225

agents,08/28/2025 11:45:00,2,280

agents,08/28/2025 12:00:00,4,225

agents,08/28/2025 12:15:00,2,280

Importing Your File

1. Once you click  Import > Forecast, an import form will appear. 
2. Drag and drop your prepared CSV file into the designated area, or click to browse for your file.
3. Click the "Upload" button.
    

Import Process and Results

• Import in Progress: The system will display an "Importing..." message while the file is being processed. 

• Successful Import: If the import is successful, you will see a "Forecast Import Success" message. 
• Import Errors: If there are issues with your import file (e.g., incorrect format, missing data), an "Import Error" message will appear. 

• You will also have the option to "Download Errors" to get a detailed report of what went wrong.